Overweight (including obesity) is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, some musculoskeletal conditions and some cancers. As the level of BMI increases, so does the risk of developing these conditions.
The proportion of Australians estimated to be in each BMI category in 2030 under each scenario is shown in Figure 1. In 2017–18, 60% of Australians aged 5 and over were living with overweight (including obesity). Under the stable scenario, the proportions of the population in each physical activity category would be the same in 2030.
In 2017–18, a greater proportion of males (66%) than females (54%) were living with overweight (including obesity). Based on current trends, both males and females are expected to have greater prevalence (69% and 58%, respectively) of living with overweight (including obesity) in 2030.
If current trends continued (trend scenario), the population expected to be living with overweight (including obesity) in 2030 could increase to 64%.
If everyone in the population at risk of disease due to overweight (including obesity) in 2018 reduced their BMI by 1 kg/m2, and these rates were maintained to 2030, 52% of the population could be expected to be living with overweight (including obesity) in 2030 (a 7.6 percentage-point reduction compared with the stable scenario). If BMI were reduced by 2 kg/m2, this proportion could decrease further to 45%.
In the scenario where the population reduced their BMI by 1 kg/m2, the proportion of males at risk in 2030 could decrease to 58% overweight (including obese) (an 8 percentage-point reduction). For females, this could decrease to 47% (a 7.1 percentage-point reduction). In the scenario where BMI reduced by 2 kg/m2, male and female overweight (including obesity) prevalence could decrease further to 48% and 41%, respectively. In the scenario where the obese population reduced their BMI to overweight (but not obese) status, 66% of males and 54% of females could be overweight (but not obese).
